Letterbox - Study Shows Local Expansion Has Not Slowed Growth of Unemployment, Etc

Editor’s Note: The following is a fictional letter written by Daniel M. Warner “to get people to think whether our fascination with production and consumption really makes any sense economically, much less as a matter of sustainability.”

Bellingham, WA
February 1, 2016

Officials in Whatcom County were elated six years ago in early 2010 when NOAA (the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) announced—in a stunning reversal—that Newport, Oregon, would not get the NOAA facility being moved from Seattle. Bellingham got it, after the city and the port spent nearly $300,000 and untold hours lobbying, threatening lawsuits, and politicking.

Just as the port had predicted, about 190 good jobs were directly created. Scientists and their families moved to Whatcom County and, following years of depressed housing sales, that was a boon to the real estate market.

However, six years later, it is interesting to note that while Whatcom County’s population has grown to nearly 216,000 (up from about 197,000 in 2010), the unemployment rate actually increased. In late 2009 it was 8.1 percent and in late 2015 it was 9.4 percent (tracking closely the state average, as usual).

Maybe NOAA hasn’t been the godsend people thought it would be.

Karen Dehoyt at the state Department of Labor’s Bureau of Statistics responded to an email inquiry as follows: “Increasing the number of jobs in a particular area does not necessarily reduce the unemployment rate. It all depends on the quality of the local labor force and the kinds of new jobs available. You may only be increasing unemployment in an area by attracting marginal workers.”1

Ray Wilson had first-hand experience: “I moved to Bellingham back in 2013, from Phoenix, with my wife and three kids, figuring I could get a job here. I wasn’t having much luck where I came from, working part-time at an auto parts warehouse, and heard that Bellingham was hopping what with the NOAA thing going on. But other people had the same idea. A lot of people are looking for jobs. I’ve been unemployed for 10 months. My wife works part time at a convenience store.”

Michael Dentzel, manager of one of three Value Foods supermarkets in the county, offered another take: “Back in 2010 we had only one store in Bellingham. With NOAA’s arrival we figured we could expand, and we did. Our second store in Fairhaven was a big success. By the time we got our third store going, in north Bellingham, several other big chains had the same idea. Five new supermarkets opened in the greater Bellingham area. After three years two of them had gone out of business, and the ones left had reduced staff. There’s just too much competition.”

With the increase in population, too, have come more problems than a stagnant job market. Traffic congestion is noticeably worse than it was five years ago. Todd Roberts, who commutes from outside of Deming, said widening the Mount Baker highway to five lanes out to Noon Road seems to “have encouraged more houses out this way. The drive’s gotten worse and worse.2 And folks are still having a hard time finding work.”

DOT statistics confirm more congestion on the major thoroughfares out of Bellingham.

The federal Environmental Protection Agency told Bellingham and Whatcom County two years ago that—in the words of Toby Pearsall, editor of the Whatcom Weekly—“the jig’s up on development in the watershed.” The agency required the city and county either to prohibit further development in the watershed and clean up the lake, or else develop a plan to get drinking water from some other source. A city-county task force was established a year ago to explore a long-distance aqueduct (like Seattle’s from the Cedar and Tolt Rivers in eastern King County). However, such a project would be very expensive. The public works department estimates that water bills would probably triple or quadruple to pay for new pipelines, pumping stations, and other necessary infrastructure.

Police, fire, and medic services have also been adversely affected. Academic analysis that “[i]n not a single instance [does] residential development generate sufficient revenue to cover its associated expenditures, not in a single location”3 seems right, as first-responder budgets have been squeezed more and more. Bellingham Police Chief Duncan Saario said, “We’ve known it for 20 years. Adding more people, houses, and stores typically requires an increase in public sector spending for roads, stormwater management, drinking water supplies, police and fire protection, parks, libraries and so on. In addition, rapid population growth imposes fiscal burdens on established residents in the form of lower service levels,4 unless folks are willing to pay more in taxes.”

And they’re not. Three years ago County Executive Roberta Collins vetoed the County Council’s sales tax hike to supplement the Whatcom Humane Society budget. When the Humane Society reported its animal euthanasia rate in 2014, Whatcom County got adverse regional news coverage. Outrage and litigation ensued, with the Humane Society of the United States and local animal owners prevailing on claims of inhumane animal treatment. The county was forced to double its contribution to the WHS, and Collins was ousted when she ran for a third term. She declined to comment on the issue during last fall’s election, but photographs—leaked by Humane Society employees—of dog and cat bodies piled up to be cremated shocked locals. The pictures appeared on anti-Collins web sites and on campaign buttons for her opponent.

“Grow or die.” Ask Jason Bainbridge, president of the Port of Bellingham Commission this question: If population growth does not decrease unemployment, if it increases traffic congestion and pollution, if it causes a rise in taxes or a decrease in public service levels, why do local officials keep pumping for more growth? His answer: “That’s what the public wants. They elected me.” In retrospect, is he sorry the port lured NOAA here, since we’ve gotten bigger but the quality of life, by most measurements, has decreased? He paused, surveying the busy port from his office window “NOAA has brought a lot of good activity to our community. If you want a small-city lifestyle you just have to move someplace else. That’s how progress works. Grow or die.”

1. The title of this piece, and the quotation from “Karen Dehoyt”—a made up name—is slightly paraphrased from the November 1974 Whatcom County Business Pulse; the original article was written by Ben Frerichs, an economics professor at Western, and Karen Stern, the author of the county Overall Economic Development programs of 1972 and 1974.

2. Robert Cervero, “Induced Travel Demand: Research Design, Empirical Evidence, and Normative Policies 17/3,” Journal of Planning Literature 2002: “There is no question that road improvements prompt traffic increases, and these gains diminish travel time benefits to some degree.”

3. Dorfman & Nelson, “How Smart is Smart Growth?” At http://srdc.msstate.edu/publications/220_1half.pdf.

4. Helen F. Ladd, “Population Growth and the Costs of Providing Public Services,” 29 Urban Studies 273, 274 (1992).

To the Editor:

For months I’ve been getting letters from people and organizations I don’t know that slander President Obama and accuse him of having a socialist policy. If bailing out General Motors to a capitalistic market is socialist, I’ll eat my words.

Then one day I got a letter questioning whether he was born in the United States after all, and not qualified to be President. Today I got a letter from Judicial Watch, according to their Web site, a Washington, D.C. conservative group, that has a picture of President Obama which for reasons only known to them has been artificially tinted with a darker skin tone than his. The letter accuses the President and his administration of massive corruption. Which is the corrupt one here?

We were lied into a war on Iraq. President Obama is being slandered. We have freedom of speech in this country and it is legal to lie. But I ask voters this: would you invest in a company that repeatedly lies? So would you vote for lying Republicans?